Five questions that will shape the 60-game season for the Phillies

When Major League Baseball issued a 101-page operations manual this week for the new season, it addressed potential issues ahead and changes the teams must implement.

Even so, it’s impossible to predict how COVID-19 might affect this season or whether teams will be able to complete it. The Phillies will use Citizens Bank Park as their main training site and are expected to use the Triple-A Lehigh Valley ballpark as their alternate site. Players will report by July 1 with Opening Day likely on July 23 or 24. There are significant changes to Spring Training 2.0 and the shortened 60-game regular season:

  • Clubs can invite up to 60 players; all players and other spring training participants will be required to take a COVID-19 educational course.
  • Spring training will be in three parts: Phase 1, individual and small group workouts; Phase 2, larger or full-team workouts; Phase 3, a limited number of training games against other teams. Dates are to be determined.
  • Players are prohibited from spitting and using smokeless tobacco and sunflower seeds at team facilities. Physical interactions (high-fives, fist-bumps, hugs) among players and staff must be avoided.
  • Home teams may have their mascot at the ballpark if they choose, but mascots are not permitted on the field of play or in any other restricted area on game days.
  • The National League has added the designated hitter.
  • During the regular season, extra innings will follow minor-league rules, with a runner placed on second base at the start of each half-inning.
  • A team can carry up to three additional players, one of whom must be a catcher, for its “taxi squad” on road trips, though these players will not receive MLB service time and will be paid at the minor-league rate.

Questions remain about how the changes and an uncertain season will impact the Phillies with less than a week until players report.

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1. How do the Phillies utilize the DH spot?

The Phillies are an NL team that clearly benefits from the new DH rule. Jay Bruce would be a great regular option in the spot with Andrew McCutchen (ACL) expected to be ready for the start of the regular season. Bruce, 33, put up silly power numbers after he was acquired from the Mariners last season before injuries nagged the left-handed slugger. In 51 games (145 at-bats), Bruce hit 12 home runs and six doubles and drove in 31 runs. It’s hard to expect him to replicate that type of production, but he’s a veteran hitter who adds value to the Phillies’ lineup. For pitching matchups that don’t favor Bruce, maybe J.T. Realmuto slots in as the DH, getting a day off from behind the plate but keeping his bat in the lineup. Depending on whom the Phillies opt to have on the bench, Rhys Hoskins could be an option, too. The wild card is third baseman Alec Bohm, the club’s top-hitting prospect. Do they put him on the team and get him regular at-bats between third base and DH? Which leads to an important factor to consider …

2. Will service time implications affect whether Phillies’ top prospects open season on team?

It’s unclear how service time for potential prospect call-ups will work, but it’s likely to still include the typical parameters. That means teams would be incentivized to keep their top prospects in the minors for a short period to ensure the organization retains an extra year of control. But with only 60 games, a poor start could doom postseason chances. So, if you’re the Phillies, do you wait a week or two to promote Bohm and right-hander Spencer Howard to the active roster or could they be the difference between getting into the playoffs for the first time since 2011 or missing out again? Teams can have 30 players on the active rosters to open the year; that number reduces to 28 on the 15th day of the season and decreases again, to 26, on the 29th day for the remainder of the season and postseason. Howard was expected to help the club at some point in 2020. He wouldn’t get any game action at the alternate training site, like he would have for the IronPigs in a normal season, and an innings limit isn’t much of an issue in a severely shortened season. It’s easy to envision Howard and Bohm helping the Phillies win games by opening the season on the big-league team. But the choice might not be as easy from the Phillies’ perspective, thanks to the service time issue.

Joe Girardi talks with Yankees manager Aaron Boone in March. (John David Mercer / USA Today)

3. Does manager Joe Girardi get creative with his pitching staff?

Even with roughly three weeks of Spring Training, Part 2, it’s unreasonable to expect starting pitchers will be able to handle a heavy load early in the season — and that’s even more the case this year. Properly utilizing the pitching staff becomes even more important. According to MLB’s operations manual, past limits on the number of active-roster pitchers will no longer apply. That could allow for four to five additional pitchers on the active roster. The Phillies will be without right-hander Seranthony Domínguez, who is out indefinitely due to Tommy John surgery. They had a mix of relievers in camp when spring training abruptly ended in mid-March and could use a combination of veterans (Bud Norris, Blake Parker, Drew Storen) and up-and-coming minor leaguers (Addison Russ, Connor Brogdon, Damon Jones) on the roster. Girardi and pitching coach Bryan Price were still getting to know and learn about the pitchers in March. Having a pitcher of Aaron Nola’s caliber certainly helps in a shortened season; his starts become more valuable with the necessity to minimize losses and losing streaks. Girardi developed a reputation for his bullpen management in New York, staying away from using his best arms multiple days in a row. How Girardi manages the pitching staff, and particularly the bullpen, will arguably be his most important job.

4. How many prospects will the Phillies include in their 60-player camp and at their alternate training site?

With a minor-league season unlikely, development for young players will take a hit. Prospects help determine the long-term health of an organization, by reaching the majors and contributing or being used in a trade to acquire talent. Game experience can’t be replicated. It makes a lost minor-league season costly, and likely career-ending for some players, especially with affiliate reductions on the horizon. Intrasquad games are allowed at the alternate training sites, but exhibition games against other teams will be prohibited. Including a few top prospects as part of the group of players at Lehigh Valley could be a way to get key guys instruction and coaching. Bohm and Howard are obvious choices for the 60-player camp group and could head to the alternate site if they don’t make the season-opening active roster. Other Phillies top prospects who would be intriguing to consider include shortstop Bryson Stott, right-hander Francisco Morales, outfielder Mickey Moniak, right-hander Adonis Medina (who’s on the 40-man roster) and right-hander Mauricio Llovera (on the 40-man roster).

Bryce Harper addresses Phillies fans before the final game of 2019. (Eric Hartline / USA Today)

5. Which version of the Phillies will show up?

The past two seasons under former manager Gabe Kapler were perfect examples of how to start a season … and how not to finish. The Phillies’ first 60 games played out similarly in 2018 and 2019, at least by the records:

  • 2018: 32-28 start, third place in the NL East, 3.5 games back
  • 2019: 33-27 start, first place in the NL East, 0.5-game lead

Two sub-optimal finishes, including bad Septembers, cost Kapler his job. The Phillies’ final 60 games the past two years were largely forgettable:

  • 2018, 22-38 finish, third place in the NL East, 10 games back
  • 2019, 27-33 finish, fourth place in the NL East, 16 games back

The roster isn’t dramatically different from the past two years, with offseason free-agent additions Zack Wheeler and Didi Gregorius accounting for the major changes. Many of the Phillies’ key players were part of the team’s inconsistency in the past year or two. Extreme swings in wins and losses will be harder to come back from with the shortened schedule. This year, the Phillies’ .509 strength of schedule is the sixth toughest in MLB. FanGraphs’ ZiPS projections have them finishing 30-30 (fourth in the NL East) with a 30.4 percent chance of making the postseason.

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Girardi preached during spring training that the season is a marathon, not a sprint, and that peaking in September to October is pivotal. That philosophy will have to change with a 10-week season. Playing from ahead is much preferable to trying to catch up. It would behoove the Phillies to replicate, or outperform, their 60-game starts from the past two years. Whether the Phillies engage in the trade market ahead of the pushed-back Aug. 31 deadline likely hinges on them getting off to a strong start.

(Top photo of Alec Bohm: Brace Hemmelgarn / Getty Images)

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