What is the Twins plan for center field? Internal, trade and free agent options

Last offseason, the Minnesota Twins knew they needed improved center-field depth behind the oft-injured Byron Buxton, so they acquired veteran Michael A. Taylor from the Kansas City Royals in a January trade. It proved to be an essential move, as Buxton never set foot in center field and Taylor started 110 games, playing Gold Glove-level defense and hitting a career-high 21 homers.

Advertisement

And now they’re right back where they started.

Taylor is a free agent and Buxton’s health status is even murkier than it was last year at this time, so the Twins are again in need of a center fielder. President of baseball operations Derek Falvey confirmed the Twins’ payroll will decrease in 2024, perhaps substantially, due to the expected drop in local television revenue, making them less likely than usual to fill the hole with a high-priced veteran.

Given all of that, what are the Twins’ options as they begin the offseason with a blank space atop the center field depth chart? Let’s take a look.

Internal options

Byron Buxton

It’s been 15 months and two knee surgeries since Buxton played center field for the Twins, so it would be wishful thinking to count on him as the Opening Day center fielder. Everyone involved would love for that to change, and it certainly hasn’t been ruled out, but in the meantime, the Twins obviously need a plan in place that doesn’t revolve around Buxton.

“Our expectation through the winter for (Buxton) is we’re getting him ready to play center field,” Falvey said at this week’s GM meetings. “We had a different plan last offseason. He had a different procedure. We were hopeful he’d be a DH to start the year and then build in over time. Obviously that didn’t happen. But if he can go, our focus is going to be on him playing center field to start.”

Willi Castro

Willi Castro was one of the Twins’ most valuable players in 2023, blowing away expectations for a minor-league signing who barely made the team out of spring training. He hit .257/.339/.411 with 33 steals and a 106 OPS+ over 124 games, 29 of which as the Twins’ starting center fielder, and Castro is under team control for a projected $3.2 million via arbitration.

Part of Castro’s value came from versatility that would be lost moving to center field. It’s also not safe to assume he’s an above-average hitter after posting an 87 OPS+ in four years with the Detroit Tigers. And while he looked increasingly comfortable in center field with more reps, some Twins officials consider him a clear step down from Taylor and perhaps stretched there playing every day.

Willi Castro just prevented the Reds from tying this game. pic.twitter.com/rLQYVaF0Id

— Do-Hyoung Park (@dohyoungpark) September 20, 2023

Nick Gordon

Nick Gordon is a non-tender candidate after an injury-wrecked season, but he’s projected to make just $1 million via arbitration if the Twins aren’t ready to give up on the 28-year-old first-round pick. He’s also out of minor-league options, a tenuous spot because Gordon can’t be sent down without first being exposed to waivers, but he has center-field experience and showed hitting upside in 2022.

Advertisement

Gordon has started 66 career games in center field for the Twins, including 11 last season before fracturing his shin in mid-May. They generally prefer to use him in left field, or in a utility role that includes infield action, viewing Gordon as merely adequate in center field. But he’d be a viable placeholder versus right-handers and it would give Gordon one last chance to stick with the Twins.

Austin Martin

He’s bounced around defensively since being the No. 5 pick in the 2020 draft, but Austin Martin has the speed and athleticism to stick in center field. After missing most of the first half with an elbow injury, Martin hit .300/.428/.473 with 29 walks and 14 steals in his final 44 games at Triple-A St. Paul, showing the on-base skills to be a quality regular despite minimal power.

Ideally, the Twins would begin the season with a veteran center fielder and have Martin as a midseason call-up. If signing a free agent is too costly, they can use Castro/Gordon to keep the position warm. It’s also very possible Martin, who will be 25 in March and has nearly 1,100 plate appearances between Double A and Triple A, could simply win the Opening Day job with a strong spring.

DaShawn Keirsey and Michael Helman are other speedy prospect options.

Nope. Not a replay. Superman at it again with his third diving catch of the night. @austin_martin99 hitting .345 with a 1.097 OPS in August coming into tonight. He's 2-4 with a double, stolen base, and two runs scored and three highlight reel plays. pic.twitter.com/WkbVD6nRpm

— St. Paul Saints (@StPaulSaints) August 26, 2023

Free agents

Cody Bellinger and Jung Hoo Lee are the top center fielders in this free-agent class, but they figure to be well out of the Twins’ shrinking price range. There are, however, several Taylor-style veterans — including Taylor himself — who could be appealing short-term solutions at more budget-conscious prices while the Twins try to figure out what they have in Buxton and various prospects.

Advertisement

Kevin Kiermaier

On the free-agent market for the first time last offseason, Kevin Kiermaier got a one-year, $9.3 million contract from the Toronto Blue Jays despite being a 33-year-old center fielder coming off an injury-wrecked season in which he hit just .228/.281/.369 in 63 games. He’s a year older now, but Kiermaier is also coming off his healthiest (129 games) and most productive (104 OPS+) year since 2017.

Kiermaier is an all-time great center fielder and remained elite at 33, snagging his fourth Gold Glove award. He’s a bottom-of-the-order left-handed bat and, compared to Taylor, offers similar speed, more contact skills and far less power. Kiermaier is a Rocco Baldelli favorite from their time together with the Tampa Bay Rays, but may have played himself into multi-year offers.

Michael A. Taylor

Simply running it back with Taylor would work just fine. He hit just .220 with a ghastly .278 on-base percentage while striking out in 33.5 percent of his plate appearances, but 21 homers, 13 steals in 14 tries and fantastic defense still made Taylor roughly an average all-around starting center fielder. He also seems more likely than Kiermaier to be available on a modest one-year deal.

Taylor sacrificed contact for power with the Twins, whiffing 30 percent more often than in the previous three seasons. His ugly 130-to-26 strikeout-to-walk ratio is a red flag at age 33, but Taylor has never controlled the strike zone well and no one is signing him for his bat anyway. If the Twins are confident he can remain an elite defender, a reunion seems like a straightforward solution.

Welcome back, MAT. pic.twitter.com/tpyBFObCEr

— Minnesota Twins (@Twins) September 18, 2023

Harrison Bader

Harrison Bader, like Kiermaier and Taylor, is a speedy, Gold Glove-level center fielder, and at age 30, he’s the most likely to stay that way in 2024. But whereas Kiermaier and Taylor are clearly glove-first players, Bader has been a glove-only player the past two seasons, hitting just .241/.284/.352 in 184 games for a lowly 77 OPS+ that’s a step or two below Kiermaier (99 OPS+) and Taylor (92 OPS+).

Bader was once an offensive asset, batting .244/.325/.420 for a 101 OPS+ from 2018-21 with the St. Louis Cardinals, but he was one of MLB’s worst hitters in 2023 as neither the New York Yankees nor Cincinnati Reds could get him back on track. Bader has knocked around left-handers even while struggling overall, so slotting him into a platoon role could work if the price is low enough.

Trade targets

Dylan Carlson

As a former consensus top-25 prospect who has struggled since a strong 2021 rookie season, Dylan Carlson is a change-of-scenery candidate and is reportedly being shopped by the Cardinals. Still just 25, the switch-hitting Carlson is solid defensively in center field despite middling speed and his .243/.322/.394 line in 388 games, while not matching the hype, is roughly league-average production.

Advertisement

St. Louis’ asking price for Carlson likely won’t be cheap given he’s under team control through 2026, so the Twins would be making a bet on his 2021 season and minor-league track record being more representative of his hitting upside. Carlson makes plenty of contact and draws walks, but his power in the majors has been lacking after slugging .549 with 27 homers in 135 high-minors games.

Tyler O’Neill

Tyler O’Neill is another Cardinals outfielder said to be available, and likely with a lower price tag than Carlson because he’ll be a free agent after 2024. O’Neill had a breakout 2021 season, hitting .286/.352/.560 with 34 homers and a Gold Glove in left field to finish eighth in the MVP voting at age 26, but he’s hit just .229/.310/.397 in two seasons since while missing lots of time with injuries.

O’Neill looks the part of a muscled-up slugger and that matches his boom-or-bust approach at the plate, but in the field, he’s a legit center fielder and a great corner outfielder with high-end speed and arm strength. He’s a prime buy-low target at age 28, and O’Neill’s raw power gives him more upside than any other free-agent or trade options listed, but he’s also basically had one good season.

Trent Grisham

Another buy-low candidate, Trent Grisham has gone from looking like a two-way star to hitting below .200 in back-to-back seasons. Grisham is a two-time Gold Glove winner with metrics to match, and at age 26 that shouldn’t change for his final two years of team control, but his offensive struggles are baffling for a left-handed hitter with good plate discipline and 20-homer power.

Grisham averaged 15 homers and 65 walks per 150 games the past two seasons, with a high but manageable 28.2 percent strikeout rate, but his batting average on balls in play was an abysmal .248, third-lowest among qualified lefty hitters. With the San Diego Padres shedding payroll after spending $250 million last season, they may be motivated to move Grisham’s projected $5 million salary.

Manuel Margot

Manuel Margot’s fielding metrics have slipped from great to merely good in his late 20s, but he remains a quality center fielder and a below-average but passable right-handed hitter. He’s batted .264/.317/.375 for a 96 OPS+ in four seasons as a Rays regular, posting an OPS+ above 90 each year and adding a little value with his base-running aggression.

Margot’s remaining contract — $10 million in 2024, with a $12 million team option or $2 million buyout in 2025 — is expensive given his role and the Rays’ low payroll, but it’s reasonable money compared to what Kiermaier and Taylor are expected to get as free agents. He’d also be a good fit as a fourth outfielder or platoon player if the Twins wanted to scale back his role at any point.

Advertisement

— The Athletic’s Dan Hayes contributed to this story.

(Top photo of Byron Buxton and Michael A. Taylor: Katelyn Mulcahy / Getty Images)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57lGlrbG9gZXxzfJFsZmppX2Z9cMDWoqWsZZOau7Wx0Wadop2cmXqnvsSeZJqflaOwunnTq5idnaNk